Demography-Driven Assessment of Nitrogen Recovery Potential from Waste for Future Protein Security in Iran

Document Type : Original Research

Authors

Department of Agricultural Machinery Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

With increasing pressure on water resources, food security, and sustainable development, nitrogen recovery from wastewater and food waste has emerged as a promising source of microbial protein (MP) through the conversion of recovered nitrogen. This study evaluates the potential of MP production in Iran and compares it with conventional protein sources, particularly crude protein supplied by imported soybean meal. Using IIASA– Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) population projections, annual waste streams and MP yields were estimated under three socioeconomic pathways (SSP1, SSP2, SSP5) for 2025–2050. Results indicate that wastewater-derived MP increases moderately with population growth, reaching 1.59–1.62 × 106 tons by 2050, while crude protein supplied by imported soybean meal-based protein supply ranges from 6.0 to 8.27 × 106 tons. Recovered nitrogen from wastewater could therefore replace approximately 20–27% of crude protein supplied by imported soybean meal demand, with food waste–derived MP contributing an additional 3–5%. The combined substitution potential of 23–32% suggests that integrating nitrogen recovery from wastewater and food waste into a circular bioeconomy framework could reduce dependence on crude protein supplied by imported soybean meal, improve resource efficiency, and enhance long-term protein resilience.

Keywords

References

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Treich, N. (2021). Cultured meat: promises and challenges. Environmental and Resource Economics, 79(1), 33-61. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-021-00551-3
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Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D., Monforti-Ferrario, F., Tubiello, F. N., & Leip, A. (2021). Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Nature Food, 2(3), 198-209. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00225-9
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Detzel, A., Krüger, M., Busch, M., Blanco‐Gutiérrez, I., Varela, C., Manners, R., Bez, J., & Zannini, E. (2022). Life cycle assessment of animal‐based foods and plant‐based protein‐rich alternatives: an environmental perspective. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 102(12), 5098-5110. https://doi.org/10.1002/jsfa.11417
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Esmaeilizadeh, S., Shaghaghi, A., & Taghipour, H. (2020). Key informants’ perspectives on the challenges of municipal solid waste management in Iran: a mixed method study. Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management, 22(4), 1284-1298. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10163-020-01005-6
FAO. (2022). OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 2022-2031.
Golhosseini, Z., & Ghazizade, M. J. (2024). Municipal solid waste status in Iran: from generation to disposal. Environmental Protection Research, 4(1), 16-29. https://doi.org/10.37256/epr.4120243553
Gomiero, T. (2016). Soil degradation, land scarcity and food security: Reviewing a complex challenge. Sustainability, 8(3), 281. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8030281
Greses, S., Llamas, M., Morales-Palomo, S., González-Fernández, C., & Tomás-Pejó, E. (2024). Microbial Production of Oleochemicals 15. Handbook of Biorefinery Research and Technology: Production of Biofuels and Biochemicals, 427. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-7586-6_17
Hajer, M., Westhoek, H., Ingram, J., Van Berkum, S., & Özay, L. (2016). Food systems and natural resources. United Nations Environmental Programme.
Hasanpour Kashani, M., & Dinpashoh, Y. (2012). Evaluation of efficiency of different estimation methods for missing climatological data. Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 26(1), 59-71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0536-y
Heidari-Maleni, A., Taheri-Garavand, A., Rezaei, M., & Jahanbakhshi, A. (2023). Biogas production and electrical power potential, challenges and barriers from municipal solid waste (MSW) for developing countries: A review study in Iran. Journal of agriculture and food research, 13, 100668. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2023.100668
Heikkilä, L., Reinikainen, A., Katajajuuri, J. M., Silvennoinen, K., & Hartikainen, H. (2016). Elements affecting food waste in the food service sector. Waste Management, 56, 446-453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.06.019
Matassa, S., Boon, N., Pikaar, I., & Verstraete, W. (2016). Microbial protein: future sustainable food supply route with low environmental footprint. Microbial Biotechnology, 9(5), 568-575. https://doi.org/10.1111/1751-7915.12369
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Moonsamy, T., Rajauria, G., Priyadarshini, A., & Jansen, M. (2024). Food waste: analysis of the complex and variable composition of a promising feedstock for valorisation. Food and Bioproducts Processing, 148, 31-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbp.2024.08.012
Nasseri, A., Rasoul-Amini, S., Morowvat, M. H., & Ghasemi, Y. (2011). Single cell protein: production and process. American Journal of food technology, 6(2), 103-116. https://doi.org/10.3923/ajft.2011.103.116
Ohimain, E. I. (2025). Microbial Biotechnology for Food Waste Reduction and Upcycling. In Ecofriendly Frontiers: Harnessing Microbial Applications for Food Security (pp. 313-343). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-98700-7_12
Onukwulu, E. C., Agho, M. O., & Eyo-Udo, N. L. (2022). Circular economy models for sustainable resource management in energy supply chains. World Journal of Advanced Science and Technology, 2(2), 034-057. https://doi.org/10.53346/wjast.2022.2.2.0048
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Usman, M., Sanaullah, M., Ullah, A., Li, S., & Farooq, M. (2022). Nitrogen pollution originating from wastewater and agriculture: advances in treatment and management. Reviews of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, 260(1), 9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44169-022-00010-0
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Biomechanism and Bioenergy Research
Volume 4, Issue 4 - Serial Number 10
December 2025
Pages 35-45

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  • Receive Date: 16 October 2025
  • Revise Date: 06 December 2025
  • Accept Date: 18 December 2025

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